[From the last episode: We saw how a single device could help shallow-pocketed farmers improve their farming yields]

This time we’re going to stick with farming as an application. But, instead of discussing one device, we’re going to look at a whole farm that’s been automated in the UK, yielding what they admit is “the most expensive hectare of barley ever” (at least for now). The project is called the Hands-Free Hectare, and it involves considerations both of technology and of economics (and, eventually, politics). I learned about it through C-net.

The Hands-Free Hectare

Unlike the last story, this isn’t about a single gadget saving the day. This is about a monumental project to automate every aspect of the farm, from seeding to harvest. That means sensing, both in the ground and from drones and satellites, and automated vehicles. It means machine learning and cloud computation. It means operating machinery and watering and fertilizing all with no human hands on-site to do it.

Some of this has been done before in a more limited fashion. But here they try to bring it all together, all while improving the accuracy of the machinery. It’s strictly a learning project due to the costs. But if they can nail the technology, reduce the cost of the equipment, and then benefit from increased scale as it goes mainstream, there’s a possibility that it could compete. Certainly, by operating machinery more precisely – only when absolutely needed – and by reducing inputs like water and fertilizer – applying only when and where needed – energy and materials costs can come down.

Of course, you might see a dark side to this: a classic example of technology eliminating jobs. This is where the economics – and, ultimately, the politics – come in. We shouldn’t ignore that – technology should benefit humans generally, not cause misery to some humans to the benefit of a few others. But there are a couple angles we need to explore for this specific case – one of which we’ll have to take up later.

Unpopular Jobs

For agriculture, it’s a known fact that the work is hard. Super hard. Well-off people sometimes credit their hard work for making them rich – and, in many cases, they did work hard. But if hard work were all that were necessary for wealth, then farm workers should be the billionaires.

The fact that these jobs don’t lead to wealth means that it’s hard to find people willing to do the grueling work. I’ll speak in terms of the US, even though this project is in the UK; the problems are likely simlar. We have a hard time filling low-level ag positions through non-immigrant labor. With immigration being limited, and with increased enforcement putting the squeeze on undocumented workers, fields are going unharvested. In a world where we’re going to need to feed a few more billions of people, letting food rot in the field isn’t going to work.

So, from that standpoint, automation isn’t eliminating jobs; it’s filling jobs that wouldn’t otherwise be filled. That said, this is a situation specific to this particular industry (and perhaps a few others). It doesn’t necessarily generalize to other areas where eliminating people means eliminating salaries and benefits.

The argument put forth for the Hands-Free Hectare is similar to the argument used in all of these industries: displaced people will find newly invented jobs elsewhere. The example put forth here is that the displaced tractor driver will instead be a fleet manager handling a bunch of tractors.

The Tyranny of Math

Sounds good, except that the math doesn’t work – at least within this industry. Let’s say there’s a fleet of 50 tractors. They have 50 drivers. One of them will become the fleet manager – and then that job is full. Where do the other 49 ex-drivers go?

OK, maybe there will be a few other jobs. But if 49 other new farming jobs opened up, then there would be no cost savings – you’d still be paying 50 people. And, because the new jobs may well require more skill, they also probably pay somewhat better. So costs could actually increase – which is a clue that this scenario might not be realistic. Yes, we’ll need more food, but not more expensive food.

The typical answer here is that the remaining displaced workers will find work in other industries. That raises other questions, but it’s too out of scope for us today. Perhaps we can address it in the future.

But… to the extent that automation fills jobs that no one else wants to do, projects like the Hands-Free Hectare can be a big win if fully commercialized.

IoT Breakdown

Relating the Hands-Free Hectare to the four basic IoT elements, we have:

• Sensing: there are sensorsA device that can measure something about its environment. Examples are movement, light, color, moisture, pressure, and many more. everywhere giving information on the state of the soil and plants as well as for guiding automated equipment and probably lots of other things.
• Communication: the measurements get transferred to the cloud for analysis; instructions to the equipment are communicated back.
• Computation: machine-learning modelsA simplified representation of something real. We can create models of things in our heads without even realizing we're doing it. Technology often involves models because they let us simplify what would otherwise be extremely detailed, complicated concepts by focusing only on essential elements. and other computation guide the automation decisions.
• Actuation: commands to plant, water, fertilize, steer equipment, and every other little thing are sent from the cloudA generic phrase referring to large numbers of computers located somewhere far away and accessed over the internet. For the IoT, computing may be local, done in the same system or building, or in the cloud, with data shipped up to the cloud and then the result shipped back down. or from other local equipment.